Research Article
Volume 6 Issue 10 - 2021
ROR Modeling and Earthquake Forecast Until 2050
Osés Rodriguez Ricardo1*, Fimia Duarte Rigoberto2, Pedraza Martinez Félix Alfredo1 and Saura González Gillermo1
1Centro Meteorológico Provincial Villa Clara, Calle Marta Abreu No 57 Altos, esquina Juan Bruno Sayas, Santa Clara, Villa Clara, Cuba
2Facultad de Tecnología de la Salud y Enfermería (FTSE), Universidad de Ciencias Médicas de Villa Clara (UCM-VC), Cuba
*Corresponding Author: Osés Rodriguez Ricardo, Centro Meteorológico Provincial Villa Clara, Calle Marta Abreu No 57 Altos, esquina Juan Bruno Sayas, Santa Clara, Villa Clara, Cuba.
Received: May 18, 2021; Published: September 30, 2021


To model the data series of earthquakes at a global level and earthquakes of magnitude 5 or more that have occurred on the planet in the period from 1990 to 2010 and the number of earthquakes with magnitude 5 or more from 2000 to 2019, achieve a forecast until the year 2050. The Objective Regressive Methodology, ROR, is used. Correlation coefficients are obtained between the real value and the forecast of 100% for both types of earthquakes, both variables depend on the value of 17 years ago, the trend of the total of both earthquakes is to increase if the tendency to rise is maintained. It is necessary to emphasize that only the Civil Defense bodies are in charge of issuing alerts about the appearance of these phenomena and this work is part of the studies of alternative methodologies for the determinant prediction of the number of earthquakes. Our work shows the impact of the 22-year solar cycle on earthquakes, which coincides with similar works in our province on other natural phenomena. Perfect models are obtained both for total earthquakes and for those of magnitude 5 or more. The trends of earthquakes are increasing. The number of earthquakes that can occur on our planet can be predicted until the year 2050. The actual and predicted values are in good agreement. It is shown that it is possible to use the 22-year solar cycle to predict earthquakes.


Keywords: ROR Mathematical Modeling; Forecast; Earthquakes; Trend; Solar Cycle


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Citation: Osés Rodriguez Ricardo., et al. “ROR Modeling and Earthquake Forecast Until 2050”. EC Veterinary Science 6.10 (2021): 21-28.

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